Xie Wen from three perspectives on the nternet industry in the next 35 years

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friends want me to write an article, predict the next ten years the development of the Internet industry, I did not dare to promise. The network industry is a rapid development of new high-tech industry changes, in my ability, about 35 years after the industry trend is the previous record, 35 year forecasts generally is quite accurate, the longest time is to guess. The so-called Internet industry, you can talk about things around the world, you can also talk about a Chinese thing. The former is relatively good to talk about, because relatively simple, as long as a few major companies and several major context can be clear. China’s things are more difficult to talk about, because the Internet industry itself is a chaotic, industrial development to a large extent tied with the development of the country, the industry is not measurable factors and force majeure too much. Here try to talk about the Internet industry in the next 35 years from the perspective of the three, when it is not to see.

said mainstream who is the mainstream

a lot of people, a lot of companies, many organizations to promote their love to represent the social mainstream, even if there is no data support or distort data meaning still boast without shame. In the Internet industry, the "mainstream" is generally used in the discussion of three problems: 1) in today’s Chinese, Internet user groups have become the mainstream of social groups, whether the network of public opinion represent the mainstream public opinion; 2) Internet news information service and social interaction is not has become the mainstream of social media, whether the demand characteristics of Internet users for news and information on behalf of the mainstream of social demand; 3) in the Internet industry, whether state-owned or private media company is a main service channel, whether the former or the latter is the main force of the Internet industry.

Chinese census and CNNIC two times a year, the network industry survey

by the end of 2010 for the discussion of Internet users have already become China social mainstream crowd, whether on behalf of the network of public opinion mainstream public opinion provides a comprehensive and authoritative data.

table 1. Labor population accounted for half of Internet users


data sources: National Bureau of statistics and CNNIC

the number of Chinese Internet users reached 485 million, accounting for the total population of 36.2%. The Internet penetration rate is slightly higher than the world average, from the developed countries, the penetration rate of 60-70% is still a lot of difference. However, if according to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, the population of the country is divided into young age, labor and Gao Lingsan group, the vast majority of Internet users will find Chinese (96%) focused on the labor population (Table 1). In the age of 15 to the age of 59 people, the Internet penetration rate has reached 49.5%.

Table 2 more than high school population has been popular network


data source: National Bureau of statistics and CINNC, it is strange that 130 million people were not included in this statistics.

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